Mark Reynolds has been as expected offensively in 2011. His line of .225/.324/.486 is significantly better than his 2010 .198/.320/.433, particularly given the switch to the tougher league, and the overall decline in offense. His wRC+ (overall offensive contributions relative to league average via fangraphs) is 117. That 117 means that he has been roughly 17% better than average at the plate, and is the second highest of his career, second to his Babip driven 44 homeroom season in 2009.
Despite his production at the plate, he has been worth only .7 Wins Above Replacement (fangraphs). The reason? Reynolds has had a miserable season defensively, costing the team over 20 runs - roughly equivalent to two wins, with his glove at third.
Since moving over to 1st base, Reynolds has *looked* much better. He has shown quick instincts and smooth hands, while not making many obvious mistakes. His defensive numbers are not awe inspiring (in a limited sample size), but suggest that he has, at least, not been dramatically bad since moving across the diamond.
Reynolds has put substantial time in at 1st only once in his career, playing 218 innings there in 2009. That season, Reynolds was, according to fangraphs UZR/150 (measuring the number of runs a player costs/saves per 150 games), absolutely horrible. He was on pace to cost the Diamondbacks almost 40 runs with his glove, for a total cost of 4 wins.
It is highly unlikely that Reynolds is THAT bad at 1st, given that even in his disastrous defensive 2011 season, he has been better than that at 3rd, a much tougher position. Additionally, to my untrained non-scouting eye, Reynolds looks pretty good at first.
Let's say he can be only a subpar defensive 1st baseman, not a historically bad one, and costs the team…5-10 runs (0.5-1 win) with his glove, after extensive training and practice at the position.
Reynolds is an historic offensive talent. Not historically great, just historic. He has the all time single season record for strikeouts, as well as the number 2, and 3 seasons on the list. Despite his proclivity for the swing-and-miss, Reynolds has been an above average hitter through his career, average a 110 RC+ (10 % above league average).
However, the offensive standards at 1st base are much higher than those at third. How would Reynold's offense stack up at 1st? His 2011 RC+ of 117 would rank 15th of qualified 1st basemen, tied with Carlos Santana, right above Gaby Sanchez, Carlos Pena and Carlos Lee. That sounds about right to me. Offensively, Reynolds would be a mid-tier 1st basemen, without (most likely) bringing much to the table with his glove.
All in all, it looks like Reynolds would be a slightly below average MLB 1st basemen, with a chance for upside if increased reps result in positive defensive numbers or if he has another 2009. He would be a 2.0 player, with a shot at 4.0 wins if everything breaks right. Not necessarily a bargain given his salary, but worth a shot, and most likely the bet Orioles first baseman of the last decade. (better than David Segui!)
next up…what to do at third if Reynolds stays at 1st.
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