who's on third

In my last post, I wondered whether Mark Reynolds can successfully move to 1st base for the 2012 Orioles. If this move does happen, it will create an opening at third. Below - the possible replacements. Next up, the solution (should one exist)

The Candidates:

IN HOUSE

Robert Andino

Josh Bell

Chris Davis

FREE AGENTS

Wilson Betemit

Not an inspiring group. Let's take 'em one-by-one.

ANDINO

Robert Andino has filled in ably this season, moving around the infield providing surprisingly production (in the context of what sort of production you expect from Robert Andino) in the absence of Brian Roberts, Lee (with Reynolds moving to 1st), and Chris Davis. Andino has been a sub-par hitter throughout his career. In 2011, a walk rate of 8.4% has pushed his "production" up to 83 RC+, still very poor, and unfortunately, probably the high end of his range. He has no power, and I think a .260/.330/.330 is reasonable to expect of Andino going forward. A mediocre fielder at 2nd, Andino has been very solid at 3rd, with 3.6/150 UZR (runs saved per 150 games).

Andino has displayed one offensive plus over the past two seasons, an ability to hit left handers for average. He has put up a .325/.385/.382/.767 line against left handers, compared to a shockingly inept .222/.295/.293/.589 (shudder) against north-paws.

Andino is exposed being forced to play regularly against righties, and is not a viable everyday option, but he does provide flexibility and league average offense against lefties.

JOSH BELL

one of many poster children for Orioles Prospect disorder, a Baltimore specific illness that strikes Orioles minor leaguers upon their ascension to the majors. The key piece on the George Sherril deal (one that looked at the time like a real feather in McPhail's cap), Bell has proven utterly incapable at the major league level. As recently as 2010 he projected as a fringe-average defender at third, with a good arm, and a major league ready bat, capable of putting up consistent .280/.340/.460 type numbers. An average third baseman. An incredible exchange for a fluky 3 months from a mediocre relief pitcher.

As we know, things have not worked out like that. Bell has been worth nearly a win below replacement in his extended trial so far. He has failed against lefties .202/.233/.253. He has failed against righties .201/.223/.229. And while he was solid with the glove in 2010, he has, in 2011, failed defensively, costing the O's a run on defense in limited playing time. I'll say this for him, he has been consistent.

Worse than the above, Bell's approach has fallen apart. He has turned into an all-or-nothing hacker, and has incredibly poor pitch recognition skills. He is still on the young side, and deserves more extended minor league trials, but the Orioles (and particularly their pitching staff) can't take another season of defensive butchery at third.

CHRIS DAVIS

Convenient that Davis may be the most likely replacement for Reynolds at third, as he is sort of the left handed counterpart to his predecessor (with slightly lower walk and K rates). He has big, big power, legitimate 40+ homerun power. His inability to get on base has largely mitigated that power thus far in his career. Davis had a fantastic half-season in 2008, putting up a Babip driven .285/.331/.549 in hitter-friendly Rangers stadium. Since then, he has absolutely mashed at triple A: .327/.418/.521 in 2009, .327/.383/.520 in 2010, and a mind-blowing .368/.405/.824 in 2011.

He may be a case of the mythical 4-A player, the hitter who can excel at Triple A, but can never translate his skills into league average production at the Major League Level. His numbers at the bigs in the same period: .238/.284/.442 in 2009, .192/.279/.292 in 2010, and .241/.279/.379 in 2011.

In Triple A he's Babe Ruth with fewer walks, in the Majors, he's Freddie Bynum.

Defensively, Davis has been bad at third in limited playing time. Mark Reynolds bad. However, scouting reports sugget that he has fringe-average potential at third. His offensive potential (despite a lack of success to this point) is exciting enough that he may yet deserve a trial.

In has career Davis has had much more success against righties, hitting for a cumulative .256/.308/.466, while batting only .226/.272/.408 against southpaws. In his outlier 2008 he crushed Left AND right handed pitchers. Since then, he has shown nothing against lefties, OPSing .546, .411!, and .789 in only 31 plate appearances in 2011.

WILSON BETEMIT

The 2012 third base free agent class is rough...

(from Cot's Contracts)

Third Basemen
Wilson Betemit KC
Casey Blake LAD *
Eric Chavez NYY
Mark DeRosa SF
Greg Dobbs PHI
Edwin Encarnacion TOR *
Wes Helms FLA
Melvin Mora ARI
Aramis Ramirez CHC
Miguel Tejada SF
Omar Vizquel CWS

Yikes. Aramis Ramirez is a good third baseman having a good year, but at 33, and presumably demanding 12 million+ a year, not a reasonable target for the O's (unless the market falls apart and they can get him on a one year 6-8 million type deal).

I wouldn't look at the rest of this list without protective eyewear. A 45 year old, the corpse of Miguel Tejada...

The one potentially intriguing option is Wilson Betemit. A former top-prospect, Betemit has only once had more than 300 at bats in a year. That year, with the Royals, he batted .297/.311/.511. This year, split across two teams, he is hitting a slightly above average .286/.344/.415.

Betemit has played at all 4 infield positions, and has been below average at all 4. He is least offensive at 1st and at 3rd, where he is -14.3/150 UZR.

A switch hitter, Betemit has been much better against right handed hitters in his career, putting up a .277/.349/.464 line versus a .245/.378/.378 against lefties.

Next up - what to do....what to do